Two condos in Wailea can share a beach path, a palm canopy, and a view of Molokini, and still trade at prices that look like they belong in different markets. A studio at Wailea Ekahi listed under $1 million in early 2026. A one bedroom at Wailea Elua, roughly a five minute walk away, started above $3 million. The finishes explain some of that. Ocean proximity explains more. But the largest single driver right now is a line on a zoning map that most buyers never see until their attorney pulls it up.
That line separates apartment-zoned Wailea condos from hotel-zoned Wailea condos. Under Bill 9, signed by Mayor Richard Bissen on December 15, 2025, apartment-zoned buildings must phase out transient vacation rental use by January 1, 2031 in South Maui. Under Bill 88, approved by the Maui County Council on June 19, 2026, some of those buildings may apply to be rezoned into new H-3 or H-4 hotel districts and keep renting. May. Apply. Neither word is a formality.
The friction that surfaces at offer time
If you are shopping Wailea condos in 2026, the surprise is not the price. You have seen the price. The surprise is the disclosure package. A building that has advertised itself as "vacation rentable" for thirty years may now sit inside a rezoning application that has not been filed, or has been filed and not heard, or has been filed and depends on a subsequent AOAO vote and a planning commission calendar you do not control.
That timing matters because the county has been explicit that Bill 88 does not automatically rezone anything. Each condo community has to initiate the process itself. A building on the Temporary Investigative Group's Exhibit 2 list, which identified roughly 4,519 units the council considered well suited for H-3 or H-4 conversion, has a clearer path than a building that was left off. Neither has a guarantee.
Sellers know this. That is why some listings now carry language about "Minatoya status," "TIG-recommended," or "hotel-zoned" the way listings in other markets flag HOA delinquency. The words are shorthand for a projection of what the unit will legally be allowed to do five years from now. The words are also occasionally wrong. The county's own short-term occupancy list carries a disclaimer that it is subject to error and that verification should come from the Planning Department.
What the price gap is actually saying
The Wailea condo market has always spread wide. As of June 2026 there were 88 active Wailea condo listings with a median list price of $2,442,000, ranging from $750,000 at Grand Champions to $14.99 million at Wailea Beach Villas. Island wide, the Q1 2026 condo median was $699,000, down 12.1% year over year, with pending sales up 17.1%. Wailea and Makena condo activity was up 16.7% year over year in Q1 as buyers re-engaged at recalibrated prices.
Inside Wailea, the recalibration has been uneven. At Wailea Ekahi, the 2025 median sale price was $1,280,000, down roughly 20% from $1,600,000 in 2024. At Wailea Elua, listings in early 2026 started around $3.2 million and climbed above $5 million, with fewer than four sales in a typical year. Both complexes sit within the Wailea Resort. Both allow short-term rentals today. One is hotel-zoned. The other is not.
Here is how the fourteen or so Wailea condo communities sort under current county rules and the pending Bill 88 pathway. The distinctions below reflect zoning classification and the county's 2024 short-term occupancy list, not a projection of what any specific building will succeed in doing under Bill 88.
| Complex | Current STR status | Zoning path |
|---|---|---|
| Wailea Elua I & II | Permitted, on non-apartment short-term occupancy list | Hotel-zoned, unaffected by Bill 9 |
| Wailea Point I–III | Permitted, on non-apartment list; CC&Rs further restrict | Hotel-zoned, unaffected by Bill 9 |
| Wailea Beach Villas | Permitted, on non-apartment list | Hotel-zoned, unaffected by Bill 9 |
| Hoolei | Permitted, on non-apartment list | Hotel-zoned, unaffected by Bill 9 |
| Andaz Residences | Permitted through resort program | Hotel-zoned, unaffected by Bill 9 |
| Wailea Ekahi | Permitted under Minatoya | Apartment-zoned; on TIG Exhibit 2, must apply under Bill 88 |
| Wailea Ekolu | Permitted under Minatoya | Apartment-zoned; Bill 88 application would be needed |
| Grand Champions | Permitted under Minatoya | Apartment-zoned; Bill 88 application would be needed |
| Palms at Wailea | Permitted under Minatoya | Apartment-zoned; Bill 88 application would be needed |
| Kai Malu, Fairway Villas, others | Residential only | Not a rental play |
The residential-only complexes were never part of the Minatoya conversation. They are priced accordingly, and their buyers usually want it that way.
What Bill 88 changes, and what it does not
Bill 88 created the legal category. It did not fill it. The Maui County Council approved the bill 7 to 2 on June 19, 2026, with the two no votes coming from the Lānaʻi and Molokaʻi council members. The mayor has publicly supported the TIG framework the bill implements. Even so, three things about Bill 88 tend to get lost in the topline coverage.
Bill 88 does not repeal Bill 9. It does not automatically rezone any property. It gives certain apartment-zoned condos that legally operated as short-term rentals before September 24, 2020 a pathway to apply. Bill 9 still phases out short-term rentals in apartment-zoned condos, West Maui by January 1, 2029 and the rest of Maui County by January 1, 2031.
First, application is initiated by the property, not the county. The AOAO has to organize, budget, and vote. Some buildings will move quickly. Others will not agree internally on whether continued transient rental use is what the majority of owners want.
Second, litigation is live. Mayor Bissen, a former judge, stated publicly that he expected the law to be challenged. Lawsuits have already been filed. A court ruling could compress the timeline, extend it, or vacate parts of Bill 9 entirely. None of that is scheduled.
Third, 2026 is a Maui County election year, with the mayor and all nine council seats on the ballot. The council that finishes implementing Bill 88 may not be the council that passed it. For a buyer holding a fifteen-year investment horizon, that is a real variable. For a buyer holding a five-year horizon, it is a material one.
The full text of Bill 9 and the county's implementation notes are worth reading in the original if you are close to writing an offer. The disclosure summaries you receive from a listing agent tend to compress what the ordinance actually says.
Four questions to ask before you write an offer
- What is the building's current zoning designation, and is it on the county's most recent short-term occupancy list? Not the 2024 list. The current one. Confirm through the Planning Department, not through a listing description.
- If the building is apartment-zoned, has the AOAO initiated a Bill 88 application, and what is the timeline? Ask for board minutes. A resolution to explore is not the same as a filed application.
- What do the CC&Rs and house rules say independent of zoning? Wailea Point, for example, is hotel-zoned but its declarations impose additional restrictions on rental use. Zoning is a floor, not a ceiling.
- What does the unit underwrite to under a no-STR scenario? If Bill 88 rezoning does not go through, or if litigation reshapes the timeline, does the numbers still work as a second home, a long-term rental, or a resale? If the answer is only yes with vacation rental income intact, the price you are paying is a bet on a specific regulatory outcome.
Buyers who work these four questions before making an offer tend to close on the building they actually wanted. Buyers who work them after tend to negotiate a credit or walk.
FAQ
Are Wailea Elua and Wailea Point safe from Bill 9? Both sit on the county's non-apartment short-term occupancy list and are treated as hotel-zoned under the current framework, which places them outside Bill 9's phase-out. That does not remove other risks such as CC&R changes, AOAO rule updates, or future ordinances, but the current transient rental phase-out does not reach them.
If I buy at Wailea Ekahi today, do I lose the ability to rent short-term on January 1, 2031? Only if the building is not rezoned under Bill 88 or a comparable pathway before that date, and only if Bill 9 remains in force in its current form. Ekahi was included in the TIG Exhibit 2 list of properties considered well suited for H-3 or H-4 conversion, which is a favorable starting position rather than a decision.
Does the softer price at apartment-zoned Wailea condos represent opportunity or risk? It represents both, and which one dominates for you depends on horizon and financing. A cash buyer with a fifteen-year hold and appetite for regulatory uncertainty sees a different asset than a leveraged buyer counting on year-one rental income to cover carrying costs.
Does any of this affect Wailea single-family homes? Bill 9 and Bill 88 address condominiums in apartment zoning districts. Single-family short-term rental use in South Maui is governed by a separate STRH permit framework, which is capped and independently regulated. Different rules, different questions.
The Wailea condo market rewards buyers who read past the median. When two buildings on the same beach path trade at a two or three million dollar spread, the spread is telling you something the listing photos will not. If you would like a building-by-building read on your Wailea shortlist and where each one stands under the current zoning and Bill 88 timelines, The Yokouchi Team is happy to walk it through with you. Request a free home valuation, or start a conversation about what your next Wailea purchase should actually be underwriting to.
